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I love when traders tell me technical analysis doesn’t work.
While they’re entitled to be wrong, the fact remains that technical analysis does work, sometimes by up to 80% of the time. Granted, there is no Holy Grail, but if we use the right indicators, we increase our odds of success. Especially if we apply those indicators to well known stocks that may only be down temporarily.
It’s not about having the perfect strategy.
It’s about the rule you abide by with each trade.
One of the biggest issues facing all walks of traders is a severe lack of discipline and structure in stock buying habits. Many fail to use stop losses, or even protect gains with a simple trailing stop loss strategy. Others risk far too much.
With the incredibly popular Avengers: Endgame film, shares of Disney Co. exploded from a low of $107.50 to $142.50 in April 2019.
After the film grossed $1.2 billion in its opening weekend (biggest in history), analysts were still seen raising price targets. JP Morgan noted the stock could run to $150 a share by the end of the year.
Buy low, sell high -- it’s an easy rule to follow.
Unfortunately, selling is often the hardest part.
“Jeez, if only I held that stock for one more day. I could have been up another $2,500” is often the thought process. What we fail to consider is that we made money. We accomplished the initial goal. Better yet, we didn’t lose anything.
If you pull a rubber band too far, too fast, what happens?
It snaps back, right? The same thing happens with stocks, indexes, and currencies. If they’re pulled too far in one direction, eventually they’ll snap back and revert to back to the mean. In fact, we see it happen all the time.
To the average trader, candlestick patterns are a bunch of crosses and odd shapes with bizarre names, like the three black crows, or the abandoned baby bottom.
But as odd as they may sound, they can provide powerful insight into direction.