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I love when traders tell me technical analysis doesn’t work.
While they’re entitled to be wrong, the fact remains that technical analysis does work, sometimes by up to 80% of the time. Granted, there is no Holy Grail, but if we use the right indicators, we increase our odds of success. Especially if we apply those indicators to well known stocks that may only be down temporarily.
Let’s look at Raytheon (RTN) for example.
When it comes to technical analysis, moving averages are essential.
For example, for more than 20 years, I’ve relied on two specifically – the 50-day and the 200-day simply moving average. Not only am I looking for crossovers for golden and death crosses, I want to see if a stock is holding its own above them.
Buy low, sell high -- it’s an easy rule to follow.
Unfortunately, selling is often the hardest part.
“Jeez, if only I held that stock for one more day. I could have been up another $2,500” is often the thought process. What we fail to consider is that we made money. We accomplished the initial goal. Better yet, we didn’t lose anything.
If you pull a rubber band too far, too fast, what happens?
It snaps back, right? The same thing happens with stocks, indexes, and currencies. If they’re pulled too far in one direction, eventually they’ll snap back and revert to back to the mean. In fact, we see it happen all the time.
To the average trader, candlestick patterns are a bunch of crosses and odd shapes with bizarre names, like the three black crows, or the abandoned baby bottom.
But as odd as they may sound, they can provide powerful insight into direction.
The Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR), commonly known as Parabolic SAR is a trend following indicator that highlights current price direction.
It also provides entry and exit signals as well with dotted lines.